Implications for peacemaking and peacekeeping eff orts
INTRODUCTION
It has been 18 years since the eruption of the Somalia conflict following the demise of the government of
Siaad Barre. During this period, the confl ict fl uctuated in terms of its intensity, the nature of actors involved
as well as its dimensions and dynamics. Currently, the conflict is raging on between the militarily weak
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces and their supporters on the one hand and al Shaabab and
other fundamentalist groups on the other. While the TFG, which was expanded in early 2009 following
the peace agreement between TFG and the moderate opposition group the ‘Alliance for the Re-liberation of
Somalia’ (ARS-Djibouti), enjoys international legitimacy and the support of Inter-Governmental Authority on
Development (IGAD), opposition forces particularly al Shaabab reportedly receive support from some countries in the region as well as others in the Middle East.
The TFG with the support of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) controls only a small
part of the capital Mogadishu. Large parts of south central Somalia, including parts of the capital, are in the
hands of al Shaabab and other opposition forces. While in the past, clan politics and rivalry between various
warlords fuelled and entrenched the confl ict, in recent times the confl ict has increasingly taken the shape of a
confl ict between those that allegedly advance diff erent forms of Islam. Another notable development is also the extension of the confl ict from inland areas to the sea off the coast of Somalia. Th e coastal water of Somalia is now the most pirate-infested sea, posing a serious threat to maritime security and trade.
Various eff orts have been made at resolving this highly protracted confl ict. So far, there have been 15
internationally led peace processes. Since early 2008, the UN has initiated a new peace process. At the same time, the AU maintains a small peacekeeping force known as AMISOM. One of the achievements of the new UN-led peace process has been the signing of an agreement between the TFG and the ARS-Djibouti, which led to the appointment of a new president and the expansion of the TFG Parliament in late January 2009. Although this aroused the hope for peace in Somalia, the rejection of the peace process and the new government by al Shaabab and opposition forces and the increasing intensity of the fighting are raising fears that the new government may collapse. As the fi ghting persists, the Somalia conflict continues to test the imagination and good will of those working for its resolution. This confl ict is not a sudden and inexplicable eruption.
Rather, it is a result of the interplay of multiple historical, social and political processes that has shaped the political and socio-economic structure of Somalia.To adequately understand the confl ict and identify its implications for peacemaking and peacekeeping efforts in Somalia, it is imperative to examine the processes or
factors that underlie Somalia’s highly complicated and protracted conflict. The aim of this paper is accordingly
to make a modest attempt to identify and discuss these processes/factors and the dynamics and nature of the
conflict and to identify the ways in which they impact upon initiatives for peacemaking and peacekeeping
in Somalia.The paper draws heavily on secondary sources, including books, journals and reports of various institutions.
Nevertheless, primary sources such as decisions of international, continental and sub-regional organizations,
press releases and news clips are also employed. Methodologically, the implications of the root causes,
nature and dynamics of the confl ict for peacemaking and peacekeeping are drawn out and discussed as part of the analysis in the various sections.
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